Home field matters here. The Royals have lost 24 of their last 31 road games. The Indians have done the job as home favorites winning 40 of the last 58 times in that role.

I see that pattern continuing in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Zach Plesac.

The veteran Duffy is due for regression with a 2.60 ERA. Duffy's ERA's the previous three years are 4.95, 4.34 and 4.88.

Plesac went 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts last year. He's healthy now and should improve on a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts this season.

Cleveland has the more reliable bullpen.

The Indians have won the last five in this series.