Why Over? Here's the short answer: Chi Chi Gonzalez is starting and the total is less than 8. 

Gonzalez is more of a reliever - and not a very good one at that. He has a 6.17 ERA in four relief appearances and a 4.42 ERA in seven starts this season. He draws the start here because Jon Gray has an injured elbow. 

Good-looking rookie lefty Trevor Rogers gets the call for Miami. I'm wondering if Rogers is beginning to slip? He posted a 1.29 ERA in April, a 2.34 ERA in May and a 3.00 ERA during his one June start. 

The Rockies lead the National League in batting average versus left-handed pitching at .276. Colorado ranks No. 2 in the National League against southpaws in various metric categories such as slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. 

There also is a good chance the Rockies get  slugging shortstop Trevor Story for this game. He's been out with an injured elbow. 

Both bullpens are bad, too. I rate them among the seven-worst. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his NBA Game of the Week today in addition to this free selection. Stephen is a sizzling 20-7 on his NBA Games of the Week/Month/Year plays hitting 74 percent on his biggest plays!)