Aside from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors have a lot of youth and lack big-game inexperience. I don't trust the Warriors in this point spread range against a talented, hungry Grizzlies squad that has the height and muscle to hurt Golden State inside. 

Yes, the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies, 113-101, at home this past Sunday. But the Grizzlies were right with the Warriors until Dillon Brooks, who was doing a good job covering Curry, fouled out with Memphis trailing just, 93-91. 

Curry carries a high fatigue rating having played 81 minutes during his last two games. Curry's worst shooting games have occurred when he's been tired. 

Memphis has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been a 'dog. Big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has returned to the Grizzlies' lineup giving them a frontcourt edge on the Warriors with Jonas Valanclunas in the middle. Curry is an MVP finalist, but Ja Morant gives Memphis an upper tier guard, too.