Sure there's a risk going Under with the Cubs pitching rookie Adbert Alzolay and Chicago swinging hot bats scoring 35 runs in its last three games.

But there are more negative factors to going Over starting with the weather. There is not a strong wind blowing out at Wrigley Field like Friday when the Cubs won, 15-2, and there were 14 extra base hits. Expect much different today with damp weather conditions, temperatures in the 50s and just a slight breeze blowing to left field. 

Then there are the Brewers. They rank 28th in batting average. Christian Yelich remains on IL. Lorenzo Cain is out, too. Keston Hiura is batting .111 with three extra base hits in 64 plate appearances. Milwaukee is weak offensively right now, but strong defensively with an upper-tier bullpen. Alzolay's metrics suggest he's pitched better than his 6.10 ERA indicates. 

Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been very good with a 2.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. The right-handed Peralta is a flamethrower with 31 strikeouts in 18 innings. Before Friday's game, the Cubs were batting only .192 versus right-handed pitching, which was last in the league.