The Missouri Valley Conference always has been a defensive-minded conference populated by good coaches. So I think Under first when looking at Missouri Valley Conference matchups especially during tournament time when the games are held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This venue is notorious for being tough to score in as a neutral site with the Under cashing better than 65 percent on opening numbers during the last 10 years. 
The season is finished for the loser of this game. So the intensity level should be at full throttle. Illinois State and Northern Iowa are well acquainted having just played two games against each other to close out its regular seasons. Northern Iowa won 70-56 for a total of 126 points two games ago. The Panthers then beat Illinois State again, 94-87, in overtime. Note, though, the score was 70-70 during regulation. 
Illinois State hasn't broken 67 points in seven of its last 11 games. Northern Iowa hasn't gone above 70 points in regulation during eight of its last nine games.