Florida State is riding a 10-game win streak. But I like Virginia's defense, grit and home-court to prevail. 
The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined nine points with one game going into overtime. They have failed to cover in all three games. One of these victories came 13 days ago when the Seminoles defeated the Cavaliers, 54-40, as 6.5-point home favorites. The Cavaliers missed 12 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that loss. 
Florida State pulled the game out by outscoring Virginia, 10-3, down the stretch. I don't see that happening at Virginia.