The Texans haved won nine in a row. They are fat and happy with a bulging three-game division lead. The Colts are 6-6 and in must-win mode. The Texans were lucky to beat the Colts in overtime during the first meeting. They are going to get Indy's best effort here.

Houston only nipped the Colts in the first meeting when the Colts failed to pick up a first down on fourth and four from their own 43 with 27 seconds left. The Texans took over on downs and kicked a field goal on the final play. If the Colts would have punted, like they should have, the chances are very high the game would have finished in a tie.

Andrew Luck trumps DeShaun Watson and the Colts rank first in pass protection. That negates a major Houston strength, which is its pass rush. Until being shut out by the Jaguars last Sunday, the Colts were averaging 34.3 points in their last eight games. Luck can hurt the Texans secondary if given time.

Sparked by rookie sensation Darius Leonard, the Colts' defense is much improved. The Texans have a poor track record as a favorite under conservative Bill O'Brien going 4-8-1 ATS when laying three or more points.