I think I figured out why Homer Bailey remains in the Reds starting rotation despite being one of the worst pitchers in the major leagues. It's because he has a $105 million dollar contract.

I'm not going to lay this big of a road price with the Indians and Mike Clevinger, but I do see a way to fade Bailey and that's go Over the total. The Indians, after all, may reach this total just by themselves.

Cleveland ranks No. 3 in the majors in runs and homers. The Indians lose their DH, but Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting stadiums in the league. There isn't much wind, but the weather forecast calls for a clear night with high humidity. That's conducive for hitters.

Bailey is 0-5 with a 6.44 ERA at home this season. His ERA was 6.43 last year. It was 6.65 two seasons ago and 5.56 in 2015. You would think the Reds just would eat Bailey's contract. Homer Simpson could pitch better than Homer Bailey.

Clevinger has a 4.12 ERA in night games. He has a 7.15 ERA in two career starts against the Reds the last of which came on July 9 in a 7-5 Cincinnati victory.

The Reds have scored at least four runs in 11 of their last 16 games.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his Baseball Game of the Year for the second half of the season going today in addition to this free selection. Make sure you don't miss this guaranteed winner!)