Jim Riggleman has turned around the Reds. Cincinnati had won 14 of their last 18 games until blowing a five-run lead in losing 8-7 to the Cubs on Saturday.

That loss is a momentum shifter, though. I see the rejuvenated Cubs beating the Reds again today behind their top pitcher, Jon Lester.

The Cubs have won 75 percent of Lester's last 52 home starts. Lester is 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in eight home starts this season.

Reds starter Luis Castillo showed intriguing potential two seasons ago. But he's regressed this season with a 5.53 ERA and only five quality outings in 18 starts this year.

The price is worth laying to get Lester in this pitching mismatch.