It's rare to see a total this high on an NHL game. A lot has to break right for seven goals to be scored.

There are some unusual circumstances for this matchup, which favor a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker envisions. This is an earlier than usual start time plus the Penguins have been idle for eight days! They last played in December. So there has to be a huge rust factor.

The Lightning, on the other hand, are playing in their third game in four days and second in two nights. The under has cashed the last four times Tampa Bay has played without rest. The Lightning will look to guard against the much fresher and healthier Penguins by slowing things down and playing a tight checking game.

Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy also has been playing well with Ben Bishop out.