#877/878 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 137.5 points - Arkansas State vs North Texas, Sunday at 7 PM ET - We were on Arkansas State in their first round NIT match up with St Louis and picked up an easy win with the Red Wolves rolling up huge offensive numbers (103-78 Final). They shot 54% overall and 46% from deep in what was a very fast paced game with 75+ possessions. That won’t happen here. First of all, UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do with every game. Secondly, UNT’s defense is outstanding ranking 46th in efficiency, 27th in eFG% allowed, and 19th in 3 point FG% allowed. The Mean Green played a number of games vs high potent, fast paced offenses and for the most part they shut them down in low possession games. They held a high scoring Memphis team (80 PPG) that plays very fast (28th in tempo) to just 68 points on 1.05 PPP (just 65 possessions). They held UAB (81 PPG), who also plays very fast, to just 61 and 66 points in games of just 60 and 64 possessions. Arkansas St averages 79 PPG but they aren’t a great shooting team. They rank 294th in FG% and 288th in 3 point FG%. When they played slow paced, good defensive teams in the Sun Belt (App State and South Alabama) they totaled 116, 120, and 145 points (on only 65 possessions in that last game). UNT is back at home here where they beat Furman 75-64 in a game that had only 58 possessions. The Mean Green are an average shooting team (45%) but hit just under 55% in that game vs a Furman D that ranks 200th in efficiency. Now they face a top 100 D in Arkansas State. Both teams defend the arc at a high level (both top 20) so we don’t expect a ton of points from deep. UNT has allowed 70+ points since December and ASU’s defense allowed 70+ only 6 times in their 18 regular season conference games. This has the makings of a very low possession game where the defenses dominate. Under.