#786 ASA PLAY ON Marquette -3.5 over New Mexico, Friday at 7:25 PM ET - New Mexico was the highest rated team in the MWC this year, however it’s well documented how poor this league has been in the Big Dance. As of this writing (early Friday afternoon) the Mountain West has played 2 games and got blasted in both with San Diego St losing by 27 points vs UNC and Utah State losing by 25 vs UCLA. Those 2 lost ATS by a combined 41 points in those 2 games! This conference is now on a 30-64 SU and 29-62-3 ATS their last 94 games in the Big Dance. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 56 games. Now to the match up. These teams are very similar in that neither is a great shooting team, both are high level defensively (19th and 22nd in defensive efficiency) and both rely heavily on creating turnovers. The thing is, Marquette is better at creating turnovers and limiting turnovers despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Golden Eagles 20th in creating turnovers and 8th in offensive turnover rate compared to the Lobos who are 33rd and 69th in those 2 key stats. Partly because of that, among other things obviously, Marquette has much better offensive efficiency numbers (31st to 84th for NM). The Eagles can struggle vs high level offensive rebounding teams, but New Mexico is average in that regard. We think the Golden Eagles are a bit undervalued. 50% of their losses this season came at the hands of St John’s & UConn and their metrics are very similar to last season when they were a 2-seed and made the Sweet 16 yet this year they are a 7-seed. They are 1 of 11 teams that ranks inside the top 31 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). We’ll lay this small number.