#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10.5 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.