#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons. Not even close. The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts. The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them. They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season. The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP. Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC. That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies. AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC. For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem. Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State. The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season. On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation. Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks. Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco. Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.