#470 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We get a divisional underdog, at home, playing with revenge. I’m not sure what else needs to be said. Overall, underdogs in W1 typically do very well with a 71-53 ATS record going back to 2016. Divisional dogs in Week 1 are 30-18 ATS going back 48 games in that situation. These same two teams met in the regular season finale last year with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The Texans won that game 23-19 as a 1-point favorite on this same field. The Colts had more total yards 360-306, more first downs and a TOP advantage. The game ended with Indianapolis on the 15-yard line going into score. The Colts did it last season with a backup QB in Minshew and now have a healthy Richardson under center. Indy will focus on the ground game here with RB Taylor healthy and one of the best O-lines in the league. The Colts were 11th in rushing attempts per game last season and 10th in rushing YPG at 121. Houston had very good defensive numbers last season but how much of that was due to playing a soft schedule against some of the league's worst offenses. In fact, the Texans faced 13 offenses ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of DVOA last season. Houston finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite which has happened just 3 times in the past two seasons. They are 1-2 in those games and failed to cover by an average of -10PPG. A lot of hype surrounding Texans QB Stroud and this team, gives us a ton of value with the home team.