#465 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We think the Bears are overvalued entering this season. Their win total jumped from 8.5 to 9.5 and we just don’t see this team as a 9 or 10 win team. Much of the hype is obviously the QB situation with #1 draft pick Caleb Williams getting the start in this one. While he is talented, the fact is that rooking QB’s simply aren’t very successful especially early in the season. Rookie QB’s starting season openers are just 16-35-1 SU and here not only does Williams and the Bears need to buck that trend, they need to win by margin. Williams is the 19th first overall pick to start in Week 1 at quarterback, and the previous 18 went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29%). He’ll be facing a totally revamped Tennessee defense with 7 new starters and a new DC so Chicago won’t know what to expect coming into this one. The Titans offense struggled to throw the ball last season (28th in passing YPG) but that changes in 2024. New HC Callahan is a very good offensive mind (OC for Bengals last year) and we’ve been hearing QB Levis has been making great progress in this new offense. He was 11 of 13 passing in the pre-season and the Titan’s offense looked very good averaging 373 YPG. We realize the pre-season isn’t always a great indicator, but we have no doubt this offense will be much better this season. The Titans have solid weapons on the outside with Ridley, Hopkins (who looks like he’ll play here) and Boyd. The Bears have only been favored only 6 times the last 2 seasons and only 2 of those were by -4 or more. They are just 8-15 ATS as favorite since start of 2019 season. These 2 teams had very similar records (7-10 & 6-11) last season and identical YPP margins. This game should be closer to a pick-em in our opinion and we’re getting this above the key number of 3. Take Tennessee.