#219 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +16.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This line was +21 last week prior to FSU losing to Georgia Tech so we’ve lost some value but still feel this number is too high. The most concerning thing to us about FSU’s loss last week was their strength on both sides of the ball was supposed to be in the trenches and they were pushed around by the Yellow Jackets. Tech averaged 5.3 YPC in that win with the Seminoles only averaging 3.2 YPC. We don’t think it will get any easier here vs a BC team that ran for 152 yards on FSU last year and brings back nearly everyone. In fact, the Eagles nearly pulled the upset last season losing 31-29 and they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Noles 457 to 351 in that loss. New HC Bill O’Brien takes over a BC team that returns 81% of their total yards from last year (20th nationally) and 67% of their total tackles from a year ago (39th). That’s from a team that had a winning season and won a bowl game a year ago. QB Castellanos is back and he gave FSU fits last year throwing for 305 yards while rushing for 95. Last year’s FSU team was MUCH better than this year’s team and on the other side we expect the Eagles to be improved this year. Veteran coach O’Brien has a game’s worth of film on the Seminoles while Florida State won’t know what to expect with BC’s new coaching staff. Over the last decade, teams that are playing their first game of the season vs a team that already has a game under their belt have covered 56% of the time. Much more important to have game film on your opponent rather than having the experience of already playing a game. While we do expect FSU to come out on top at home, we don’t see a 2 TD+ win. BC will give them some problems here. Take the points.