#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8! Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks. But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home. This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them. Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch. The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win. Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound. He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts. Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.