#929/930 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 7:45 PM ET - The Cardinals are starting Erick Fedde here. Though his first start with St Louis was a tough outing on the road, we expect him to bounce back in his home debut here. He was previously pitching with the White Sox so his home mound had been in Chicago but one of the benefits of being a home pitcher that some starters tend to thrive with is that you begin the game on the mound because, of course, the visitors bat first. Fedde has thrived in that role as the home team pitcher this season as, even though he was with a bad White Sox team, he went 5-2 at home and compiled a 1.87 ERA in his 9 home starts. He will be opposed by Taj Bradley here. The Rays right-hander is having a solid season plus he is coming off a fantastic July. Bradley went 3-1 in his 5 starts last month and delivered strong with a 1.45 ERA. Given these numbers we were right away looking at the under in this match-up. We like the fact that Tampa Bay is on a run in which 7 of 9 games have totaled 7 or less runs. Also, the Rays had only one big game at the plate in these 9 games and in the other 8 averaged scoring only 2.8 runs a game. The Cardinals have lost 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 3 runs per game during this stretch. The Rays and Cardinals rank 22nd and 23rd, respectively, out of 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage in the last 15 days. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.