#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears -2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta can’t be trusted on the road where they have a 2-5 SU record and average only 13.6 PPG. Included in those 5 road losses were setbacks @ Carolina, @ Tennessee, and @ Arizona who have a combined record of 10-35. Their only road wins were by 3 points @ Tampa and by 5 points @ NY Jets and the Birds were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP in that win. In their road games Atlanta averages just 266 YPG (125 fewer than they average at home) and they average 10 fewer PPG away from home. Since Chicago QB Fields returned from injury in November, the Bears are 3-2 SU with their only losses coming @ Detroit and @ Cleveland, both games down to the wire. In fact, in their loss @ Detroit, the Bears led by 12 points with under 4:00 remaining in the game. The Chicago defense has been very good as of late allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that topped 20 points during that stretch were the Lions (@ Detroit) and even in that game Detroit had 14 points with under 4:00 minutes remaining. This defense has improved from near the bottom of the NFL at the end of September to their current ranking of 12th in total defense. Over the last 6 weeks, Chicago’s defense ranks 3rd in defense DVOA. The Falcons scored 29 points last week vs Indy and ran for 177 yards on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. That game was at home for the Falcons, where they are much better offensively, but not they face a Chicago defense that ranks #1 vs the rush (80 rush YPG allowed). That means they’ll most likely have to rely on back up QB Heinecke to have a huge game here. We don’t see that happening. We expect Atlanta to struggle big time offensively in this game. We’re getting a warm weather, indoor team playing in Soldier Field where the forecast calls for a cold & windy Sunday. We like the Bears here.