ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.