ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting contrarian here as the public is all over the Under in this game, but we’ll bet Over. This number is simply too low according to our models. Examining recent road games for the Hawks they had O/U numbers of 228.5 in Dallas, 227.5 in Phoenix and 226 vs. the Lakers in L.A. In the two games against the Suns/Lakers they allowed 136 and 128 and both games went Over the number easily. In their most recent game against the Mavs, they faced one of the hottest defenses in the NBA and only managed 95 points on 40% shooting overall, 34% from the 3PT line. Denver is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.181-points per possession. Since the All-Star break they have the 3rd best EFG% in the NBA at 57%, the Hawks are 14th at 54.7%. Denver has had a few lower scoring games in recent weeks, but they came against other Western Conference teams fighting for playoff positioning. Now they face a Hawks defense that is 27th in opponents FG% defense, 28th in 3PT% D and they allow 120PPG (27th). This game goes Over the number.