#123/124 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 37.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB can’t score (18 PPG rank 27th) and now they are playing the best defense they’ve seen, the #1 defense in the NFL. TB games have reached 40 total points (in regulation) just once in their last 8 games and on the road this season the offense has been terrible. Away from home the Bucs have scored 5 TD’s in 58 possessions (8%) worst in the NFL. Brady struggles when pressured and will get plenty of it here vs a SF defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack% and sacks per game. With no running game, Tampa dead last in rushing at 73 YPG, this offense is in trouble on Sunday. Brock Purdy will get his first career start at QB for SF. He played decently in relief of an injured Garoppolo last week, but now TB has film on him. He may also be without (or not 100%) two of his top offensive weapons as both McCaffrey and Samuel are banged up and questionable. The Niners offense has played only 2 top 12 defenses this season, Denver & New Orleans, and scored 10 points & 13 in those games WITH Garoppolo at QB. Both defenses are the strengths of their teams in this one. Both rank in top 6 in YPP allowed and in the top 5 in points allowed (1st and 5th). SF allows points on just 25% of their opponents possessions (1st in NFL) and TB allows points on 29% of opponents possessions (2nd best in NFL). These two teams have combined to play 24 games this year and 17 have gone Under the total. TB games average 36 PPG & SF games average 39 PPG and that was with Garoppolo at QB. Rain & wind in the forecast for SF on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring game here.