#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is the lowest total set on a Buffalo game this season and they only other one that was close was when they faced Pittsburgh in early October and the total was 44.5. The average total set in Buffalo games this season is 49.8 and this one has gotten too low in our opinion. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL averaging 28 PPG and since throwing up a dud vs the Jets a month ago (Bills score 17), Buffalo has put up 89 points over their last 3 games. New England’s defense had a very solid 3 game stretch leading into last week’s game vs Minnesota where they allowed the Vikings to pile up 33 points. However, those 3 games were vs poor offenses with the NY Jets (twice) and Indianapolis. The Bills we be the best offense the Patriots have faced this season and in their 3 meetings last year (one in the playoffs), Buffalo averaged 30 PPG. Defensively Buffalo was great early in the season giving up just 12 PPG over their first 5 contests. However, they’ve been trending down allowing 23 PPG over their last 6 games including 78 points over their last 3 (26 PPG). They will be without their top pass rusher Von Miller in this game. New England has scored at least 22 points in 7 of their last 9 games. As we mentioned, these 2 teams met 3 times last season and the average points scored in those games was 47.5 and that includes a 14-10 game late in the season with terrible wet and windy weather. It’s going to be cold in Boston on Thursday night but no precipitation. With Buffalo favored by 4 here, the projected final score is around 24-20 and we expect both teams to top those totals. Over is the play.