#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State.