#638 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL -140 on Money Line over Iowa State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Miami matches up perfectly vs the ISU defense. If you can solve that defense, you’re sitting very good as the Cyclones offense is not good. ISU needs to be able to turn teams over defensively to create extra possessions for their below average offense. The Canes play a 3-guard line up that counteracts the strength of ISU. They have turned the ball over just 7 times total in 2 games this tourney and for the season Miami ranks 6th nationally coughing the ball up on just 13% of their possessions. That means the Cyclones, who rank below 150th in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, AND FT% are going to have to find a way to get hot from the field to have a chance here. We just don’t see that happening from a team that has shot a combined 33% in their first 2 games while averaging 0.94 and 0.78 PPP. They were a bit lucky to get matched up with LSU in their first tourney game as the Tigers are terrible at protecting the ball (315th nationally) and coughed it up over 30% of the time in that game which led to 10 more shot attempts for Iowa State and a 5 point win. In their 2nd game they faced a Wisconsin team that is great at not turning the ball over but the Badgers lost their starting PG Hepburn a few minutes into that game and their back up PG Bowman has not been available. Because of that the Badgers went onto to turn the ball over 17 times vs ISU which led to 11 more shot attempts for the Cyclones in another 5 point win. So because they were able to create 36 TO’s in 2 games, Iowa State was able to take 21 more shot attempts in those 2 games combined and yet both went down to the wire. That shouldn’t happen here vs Miami. Another key here is ISU fouls A LOT. They are constantly grabbing and hacking on defense. That has led to 13 more fouls for Iowa State in their 2 games combined. That’s nothing new as they have allowed 22% of their opponents points this year to come from the stripe which is the 29th most nationally. Miami shoots 75% as a team from the foul line. If Iowa State doesn’t get a bunch of extra possessions via turnovers and they send Miami to the line a lot in this game, they are in huge trouble. Where the Canes can struggle at times is on the boards. Because they play 3 guards often, they are not a great rebounding team. That shouldn’t kill them here as ISU is not a very good rebounding team either (worst offensive rebounding team in the Big 12). Miami is the much better offensive team in this match up. They rank 18th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 30th in eFG% compared to ISU who ranks 160th and 207th respectively in those categories. They just put up 79 points on an Auburn defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Hurricanes are a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) but don’t rely on it. They score very well inside the arc hitting 55% of their shots and scoring 55% of their points. The crazy part is, Miami is 4 of 29 from 3 point land in their 2 games (13%) which is WAY below their average and they still won both games vs one team that is ranked almost identical to Iowa State (USC) and another who is ranked well ahead of the Cyclones (Auburn). ISU has scored less than 60 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Miami has scored at least 70 points in 11 of their last 12 games. We think this has the potential to be an easy win for Miami FL if they shoot better from deep, make their FT’s, and don’t turn the ball over at a high rate. We’ll take the Canes to move on to the Elite 8.