ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - HUGE game in the Eastern Conference with Miami Heat 1st at 41-21 while the Bucks are 4th at 37-25. The Bucks hold an advantage offensively with the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.139-points per possession compared to the Heat’s 1.131PPP which ranks 7th. The Heat are better defensively with the 6th best DEFF numbers allowing 1.081PPP versus the Bucks who rank 13th allowing 1.103PPP. We see this game playing out much like a Playoff game with defensive energy at a very high level. In the first meeting of the season the Heat exploded for 137 points and that game went Over the number. The last two meetings this season have resulted in 226 and 217 Total points and the most recent clash had an O/U set of 218 and now we have a number nearly 10-points higher here. The Bucks have played a stretch of games against some of the league’s highest scoring or fastest paced teams in the NBA and it’s resulted in some very high Totals which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this number. Miami is the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA and will want to keep this a low scoring affair much like they just did to a Bulls team the other night. Our math model is projecting 218 total points and we couldn’t agree more with it.