ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We have an opportunity to buy low with the Warriors here who have lost 3 of their last four games overall, including a most recent loss against the Clippers. That ties into this wager as the Warriors are 12-3 SU off a loss, 8-1 SU at home off a beat. The Warriors are 26-5 SU at home and have the best home court point differential in the league at +12.2PPG. Golden State is coming off a very poor defensive showing against the Clippers and will play with a chip on their shoulder here. The Warriors have #1 ranked defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.019-points per possession. They also have the 8th best offensive efficiency at home The Nuggets will have a size advantage with Jokic but the Nuggets concern comes on the defensive end of the court where they rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponents FG%. The Nuggets are 16-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -0.2PPG. The Nuggets have lost 3 of their last four road games against similar opponents to the Warriors. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven meetings between these two teams at home and we like them to get a double-digit win in this one.