#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game.