#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Chargers are coming off a loss @ Denver last week in a game that set up nicely for the Broncos who were coming off a bye. Cincinnati has had 2 straight impressive looking wins beating the Raiders 32-13 and Steelers 41-10. However, let’s not forget that their 2 games prior to those wins, the Bengals lost at home 41-16 vs Cleveland and lost @ NY Jets. Cincy has the better record in this match with a 7-4 mark compared to the Chargers 6-5. We have to take into account the strength of schedules of these 2 teams to put those records in perspective. Cincy had played the 31st rated schedule so far this season including games vs Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Detroit – all ranked 25th or lower in NFL team DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 30th, and 31st . Despite that, the Bengals lost 2 of those games vs the Bears & Jets and barely squeaked by the Jags by 3 points. The Chargers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL to date. Despite the schedule disparity, LA has the better YPG differential (+33 to +5) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). LA has been a solid road team with a 3-2 SU record this year and 21-10-3 ATS as a road dog the last 3 seasons. We expect LA QB Herbert to have a big day vs the 25th ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Take the points.