#264 ASA PLAY ON 8* Las Vegas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - KC continues to get the respect of the oddsmakers & bettors even though they are clearly nowhere near the team they were last season. After last week’s spread loss this team is now 3-16-1 ATS their last 20 games. That’s the definition of overvalued. Speaking of last week’s game, they played a GB team without Aaron Rodgers and were lucky to win. The Packers averaged 5.0 YPP with QB Love making his first career start and KC’s offense averaged only 3.8 YPP. GB’s turnovers and special teams gaffes cost them the game. After averaging 33.5 PPG over their first 4 games this season, the Chiefs have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last 5. In the last 3 weeks they’ve scored just 36 TOTAL points for an average of 12 PPG. As a whole the Chiefs have a YPP differential of -0.5 (5.3 YPP offense / 5.8 YPP defense). Their record isn’t an illusion. They just aren’t very good this year. For comparison’s sake, the Raiders have averaged 6.0 YPP offensive while allowing just 5.1 defensively for a YPP differential of +0.9. The Raiders are coming off a loss @ NY Giants last week but don’t be deceived by the final score. Vegas outgained the Giants by 156 yards and pushed inside the NY 20-yard line SIX times in the game and came away with just 16 points. LV had a bye the week prior to playing the Giants so they should be well rested. KC, on the other hand, is playing their 10th consecutive week which takes a toll both physically and mentally. Vegas played KC as tough as anyone last year the first meeting by 8 and winning the second meeting by 4. It wasn’t fluky as the Chiefs only outgained the Raiders by 19 total yards in the 2 games combined. And that was a year when KC was a Super Bowl team. They are nowhere near that level this season and we like Las Vegas to get this won at home.