#382 ASA PLAY ON 8* Troy -3.5 over South Alabama, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for Troy. They should come in plenty rested for this match up. Their most recent game was a road loss @ Coastal Carolina on Thursday, October 28th and prior to that game they had a bye week. So they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game and technically prior their game on Saturday, the Trojans have played 1 game in the last 19 days. South Alabama will be playing their 6th consecutive week as their bye was back in September. Troy has only played 1 home game since September 11th as 5 of their last 6 games have been on the road. They did win their only home game during that stretch and we expect them to be motivated for this rare game at home. We were impressed with their game @ Coastal Carolina, one of the top teams in the country currently ranked #21 in the AP poll. Troy took them to the wire on the road losing 35-28. After their turnover ridden 23-14 loss @ South Carolina in early October, a game Troy was actually favored by -2 points, the Trojans made a switch at QB as starter Powell was turning the ball over too much. Since switching to new QB Watson, they have won 2 of 3 games with their only loss coming to the aforementioned Coastal Carolina and he has completed almost 70% of his passes with 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions. South Alabama is definitely improved this season but they have been a very poor road team. Not only historically, but this year as well. They have played just 3 road games this year all vs poor competition. Those road game came vs UL Monroe (126th ranked in our power ratings out of 130 teams), Texas State (ranked 125th) and Bowling Green (ranked 114th). Despite the poor competition the Jaguars actually lost 2 of those games with their only road win coming @ Bowling Green by 3 points. Even in their win @ BG they were trailing by 7 points with 1:40 remaining in the game and scored 10 points in the final 1:39 to win. South Alabama was outgained on a yards per play basis in each of those 3 road games and by a combined 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in those games. Taking a look at the Jaguars road record going back a few years they are just 3-17 since the start of the 2018 season and their road points per game margin is -15.7. Last year Troy was -4 @ USA and won 29-0. The previous year the Trojans were -17.5 at home and won by 24 points. Value with the short home favorite here. Take Troy.