#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it.