ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points.