#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 47.5 Points – Washington vs Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has been an Under team this year with 2 overs & 4 unders. This is a spot to jump on the Over in our opinion. The Packers are averaging just 24 PPG this season but they’ve played a very tough slate of defenses with 5 of their 6 opponents ranking in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. The only bottom half defense they played this season was Detroit and Green Bay put up 35 points in that game. Their opening game vs New Orleans (just 3 points) has also skewed their overall offensive scoring numbers. Here they face a Washington defense that ranks 31st in total defense and dead last in scoring defense allowing 31 PPG. They are allowing opponents to score points on 52% of their drives (last in the NFL) and they have been unable to get off the field on defense allowing a ridiculous 58% conversion rate on 3rd down (last in NFL and league average is 40%). Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of their last 4 games while GB has averaged almost 27 PPG over their last 4 facing high end defenses Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Fran. Unless they completely implode, GB will score 30+ here. Can Washington score enough to get this one Over the total? We think so. They have scored at least 21 points in 4 of their last 5 and the Green Bay defense is the worst in the NFL in the red zone allowing an amazing 15 TD’s on 15 opponent trips inside the 20 yard line this year. Washington games are averaging 54 points this season and with the GB offense finally facing a bad defense, this has the makings of a high scoring affair. We like the Over here.