#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – On the surface, this may not look like an over but there are some interesting aspects to the line here. By that, we don't just mean the total either. This looks like it should be an easy Jays win and yet Toronto opened up as a rather moderately priced favorite. The line has since risen considerably on the Blue Jays but we feel the message with that earlier lower money line from the odds makers is that they are expecting the Tigers to score some runs here (and have a shot at the upset as a result) because certainly the Blue Jays should get their runs here too. That is also why, in our opinion, this total opened up at a 9.5 which might have seemed, before digging deeper, to be a little on the high side. Let's dig in! The starter for the Tigers is Matt Manning and he has a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts and has been hit hard with 23 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings! The starter for Toronto here is Steven Matz and the Tigers just saw him last week. He had some success but only recorded one strikeout and now Detroit gets him at home. The over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last home 6 games and they allowed 46 runs in those games but also did score 10 in their most recent game as a host and are coming off a road trip in which they won 3 of 5. That helps confidence and, speaking of confidence, the Jays exploded for 7 runs yesterday but they allowed 10 in that one! Toronto has averaged 6.3 runs last 3 road games and the over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games away from home. Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens are likely to have some struggles too. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over