#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – Zach Wheeler dominated the Mets in his most recent start and has only one tougher home start in his last five starts as a host. In other 4 home starts Wheeler has allowed a total of just 4 earned runs. Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.02 ERA at home this season and last year he went 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his 7 starts at home as he has dominated in starts in Philadelphia since coming to the Phillies. More of the same is in the forecast here but indeed he will have to be extremely good for the Phillies to have a chance to win this game. That's because Tyler Mahle is 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA on the road this season. Also, adding to the value here is the fact this is the first time these pitchers are starting against these lineups since 2019. We do not expect either lineup to have much success here as a result. The Phillies have not played to an over in a full week. As for the Reds they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games before yesterday's explosion at the plate and they are likely to struggle with Wheeler here. He has been displaying electric stuff of late and pitching deep into games and that limits the bullpen impact in this game but, by the way, the Phillies pen has been much better recently. You can not judge them based on their full season numbers and we also look for Mahle to dominate deep into this one as he has averaged 6 innings per road start over the last two months. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER