ASA free play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 over Phoenix Suns, Game 3 Sunday - We are playing on the Bucks here minus the points in a “must win” situation. There are plenty of positive takeaways for the Bucks in the first two games that suggest this series is a long way from over. The difference in Games 1 and 2 was blistering shooting from the Suns at home. In Game 1 the Suns shot 47% overall, 32% from 3-point and the big difference in the outcome was a 25/26 showing Phoenix from the free throw line. In Game 2 the Suns shot 49% overall and a blistering 50% from 3-point line 20 of 40, which is 7 more made 3’s than the league average. The unexpected 27 from Mikal Bridges was the big difference in the game as Booker and Paul got theirs (31 and 23). Why we expect a regression by Phoenix and a better showing by the Bucks. In Game 1 the Bucks were a respectable 45% overall and 44% from 3-point line. In Game 2 Milwaukee shot 45% overall but a dismal 29% from 3. Giannis did his job in Game 2 with 42pts 12 rebounds, but the other “Big 2” have failed miserably for the Bucks thus far. Middleton and Holiday have combined to go 28 of 77 or 36% from the field in the first two games but that is about to change. The Bucks return home and Middleton and Holiday should see more shots go in as they shoot much better at home than they do on the road. A perfect example is the last two games versus the Hawks as K-Midd and Holiday combined to go 34 of 67 or 51%. The Bucks at home are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA and have gone 7-1 SU at home in the playoffs with an average point differential +13.5PPG. Milwaukee 33-11 SU at home this year with an average differential of +8.7PPG AND since 2018 Bucks are 100-24 SU at home +11.6PPG and there is no other team in the NBA since 2018 that has a double-digit home margin of victory. The lines have been adjusted but consider the Suns were +6.5 at the Lakers to start the playoffs and the Bucks were better than the Lakers all season long. The Suns were expected to win the first two games at home but now it’s Milwaukee’s turn. Lay it.