#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 or 10.5 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:05 PM ET - Boston's Martin Perez finally had a decent start but it was against a struggling Royals team and Perez was not even efficient in that start as he threw way too many pitches for balls. Prior to that outing, Perez gave up 11 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings combined and those two starts were each at home just like this one is. Also, Perez has a 7.92 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees. New York comes into this one swinging hot sticks and will give Perez a lot of trouble. The Yankees have won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories. Boston should answer the Yankees run for run in this one and they are known for being a stronger hitting team when at home. They will face Domingo German. The Yankees right-hander had some success against them earlier this month but that was at Yankee Stadium and the last time he pitched at Fenway Park he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. Also, German enters this start in rough current form with 11 earned runs allowed on 17 hits in 8 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs. The Red Sox have won all 3 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game. Both teams had some success against the bullpen arms they faced as well in the earlier meetings and now with the Yankees seeking revenge for the 3-game sweep suffered in the Bronx earlier this month, they will be very focused at the plate and likely to pound Perez. At the same time, German simply can not be trusted based on current form and this is particularly true at Fenway. The last two of the games in the 3 game set went over the total and the over is also 9-4 in the last 13 games between these teams at Fenway Park. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 10 to 10.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over