#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins, 8:10 PM ET - The Twins JA Happ is having a very rough season and showing no signs of turning it around. At the same time, his teammates should enjoy plenty of success at the plate at home in this one. Minnesota recently welcomed back Byron Buxton to the lineup. Even though Josh Donaldson left yesterday's game, his replacement - Luis Arraez - pounded out 3 hits and is currently on a 7 for 20 run at the plate. Not a power hitter but, as you can see, Arraez is getting the job done of late with his base knocks nonetheless. Nelson Cruz left yesterday's game but, like Donaldson, could be back for this one. His replacement was power hitter Miguel Sano and this Twins lineup managed 14 hits in yesterday's game and that was on the road. Though the Reds Tyler Mahle has good numbers of late, he will have his hands full with a Twins lineup known for being particularly tough at home. Minnesota will need all the runs they can get because Happ continues to get lit up with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and 6 homers allowed over 14 innings. Happ has been hit at a .329 clip in night games this year and has an 8.02 ERA under the lights this season. The over is 7-3-1 in Reds games against left-handed starters this year. Last but not least, these are two of the weaker bullpens in MLB and the Twins have a 4.82 ERA and the Reds have a 5.66 ERA which ranks dead last in MLB. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over