#953/954 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are off a low-scoring 2-0 win at home versus the Cardinals last night. The Mets are off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres which went over the total. 9 of New York's 13 games dating to late May have resulted in an over. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has seen his starts lead to a high percentage of unders this season but this has truly been an anomaly and is highly unlikely to continue. Prior to a rare strong start in his last outing, Arrieta had an 8.28 ERA over his 6 preceding starts. On the road this season the veteran right-hander has a 6.40 ERA in 7 starts. David Peterson gets the start for the Mets but it is certainly not based on merit as his days in the rotation could be numbered. Peterson is having a very rough time with a 1-5 record and 6.32 ERA on the season. Things have not been improving for the Mets southpaw either as he has a 9.88 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs have won 5 straight games and will have plenty of confidence against Peterson as they averaged 6.3 runs in the first 4 games of their hot streak. Last night's Cubs game was a pitchers duel but you can see why this one will be anything but that. Also, Peterson had a rough start at Chicago earlier this season and now faces the Cubs at home where he has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings his past two starts. Couple that with Arrieta's long-term struggles (his last start notwithstanding) and this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of fireworks. . This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over