#733 ASA FREE PLAY ON Utah State +4 over Texas Tech, Friday at 1:45 PM ET - We feel that USU is an undervalued commodity in this tournament. This is a very good team. It’s also a bad match up for Texas Tech. Utah State is terrific defensively ranking 8th nationally in defensive efficiency and 15th in eFG% allowed. Where they really excel is defense inside the arc and inside the paint which matched up perfectly with what Tech wants to do. The Red Raiders don’t shoot a lot of 3’s (301st nationally in percentage of points from behind the arc). They want to score inside which is where USU is really good allowing opponents just 42% on their 2-point attempts (4th nationally). The Aggies are one of the tallest teams in the nation and they block a lot of shots. Future NBA big man Queta is 3rd nationally in blocked shots. Tech will struggle to score inside and USU should control the boards in this game. The Raiders also rely heavily on getting to the FT line where they score 22% of their points (32nd nationally). The problem is, USU doesn’t foul very much so that’s another problem on offense. Tech will most likely have to take more 3’s than they are used to and they better be hot from behind the arc. TT, on the other hand, does foul a lot so Utah State should have an advantage at the line. Most of the Raiders conference wins were fairly close. If you take out Iowa State, the worst team in the Big 12, and a team they blew out twice, Tech outscored their opponents by a total of 7 points in their remaining 16 Big 12 games so a margin of victory of just +0.3 PPG. Utah State lost to San Diego State (current 3 seed) by 11 in the MWC finals after beating the Aztecs twice in the regular season. Minus that loss, the Aggies don’t have a loss by more than 8 points since November. We expect them to hang around here and have a shot at the upset. Take the points.