#789 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State -3 over South Dakota, Monday at 9:45 PM ET - This line opened at NDSU -1.5 and was way off according to our power ratings. Not surprisingly, minutes after it opened it moved up to -3 and we still like the value on the Bison. We have this set at -5 in favor of North Dakota State. These 2 must met to close out the regular season and split their games, both @ South Dakota. We were on South Dakota in the first game it what we thought was a great spot to grab them at home. They rewarded us with an 80-71 win, however they lost their 1st team All Conference performer, AJ Plitzuweit, toward the end of that game to a season ending knee injury. Plitzuweit averaged 19 PPG, 5 RPG, and shot 43% from beyond the arc. Huge loss to say the least. The following day South Dakota again played host to NDSU and lost by 12. The Bison were favored by 2.5 in that game on the road and now only 3 on a neutral. You can see why we like the value here. North Dakota State played what looked like a close game yesterday beating UMKC by 4. However, they led by 16 at half and by 22 in the 2nd half so the game was never really in doubt. South Dakota beat a bad Western Illinois team in their Summit League tourney opener but an already thin team before losing Plitzuweit, their starters all logged 30+ minutes and not one reserve played more than 9 minutes. One thing we took away from the 2 games these 2 played at the end of the season was the Jackrabbits can’t hang on the boards. The Bison were +21 rebounds in their 2 meetings combined which isn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Summit. They are also the best defensive team ranking #1 in eFG% allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. That will be a problem for South Dakota who relies heavily on the 3 and just lost their best shooter. The way the first game played out, the Bison were down late and committed a bunch of fouls to send SD to the line in an attempt to come back. South Dakota, a very good FT shooting team, was +18 made FT’s in that game. In the rematch when the points from the stripe evened out, NDSU won by double digits. The Bison foul fewer than any team in the league so that is not what normally happens in their games. We expect the Bison to be ahead for most of this game an if they need to salt this game away with FT’s late, they make 76% from the line. We’ll lay the small number here and take North Dakota State.