ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - These two teams met in the regular season here in Tampa and the total was the exact same number (56). The game went Under with KC winning 27-24. We can take a few situations from that game to project why we feel this game has a decent shot of going Over this time around. In that game the two teams combined for almost 1,000 yards which would normally equate to 67 total points based on the NFL average of 15 yards per point. So by scoring just 51 in the first game, the two teams averaged 19.6 yards per point which less efficient than the worst team in the NFL in that category, the Jets who averaged 18.4 yards per point. During the regular season, TB was #2 in the NFL in yards per point at 12.5 and KC was 12th at 14.1 so both drastically underperformed in their only meeting this year. Both teams averaged 7.5 yards per play or better in that game which only happened one other time this season. If we look at the games where both teams averaged at least 7.5 per play it’s happened 18 times since 2000 and those games had an average of 73 points scored. Not saying both teams will average those numbers again here, but they have shown they can do just that. Both teams had missed opportunities galore in that game. There were 3 turnovers inside their opponents 15 yard line and only 1 TD was scored in 5 red zone opportunities. That was an anomaly as both of these teams are very efficient in the red zone ranking 11th and 12th in red zone TD’s scored percentage. On top of that, neither defense has been good at stopping teams from scoring TD’s in the red zone with KC ranking dead last in the NFL (74% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s) and TB ranking 19th in that category (62% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s). That first meeting was very pass heavy with 91 pass attempts and just 33 rush attempts and we expect similar numbers here which would favor the Over. These two teams both average right around 30 PPG (KC at 29.6 & TB at 30.7) peaking right now. Tampa’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 6 straight games while KC’s offense put up 38 last week vs Buffalo and had 19 at half vs Cleveland a week earlier before Mahomes was injured in the 3rd and didn’t play the remainder of the game. One thing we will keep an eye on here is the weather. We are releasing this pick on Thursday and the current forecast in Tampa calls for potential rain, but light winds which is key. We think both teams have a solid shot to reach the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER.