#145/146 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Tampa Bay @ Washington - Many will look at Tampa’s recent surge on offense a feel this team is peaking on that side of the ball. The Bucs have scored 26, 31, 44, and 47 points over the last month. However, those numbers were put up vs Atlanta (twice), Minnesota, and Detroit, three defenses ranked 27th or lower in total defense AND yards per play defense. Now they face a Washington defense that will be as good as they’ve seen this season (2nd in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense). It’s also a defense that can put serious pressure on opposing QB’s (4th in QB pressure rate) which is bad news for the immobile, aging Tom Brady. He completes just 43% of his passes when under pressure and ranks 31st in the NFL in QBR. We don’t expect Brady to light it up here. On the other side, Washington obviously really struggles on offense. They only average 20.9 PPG and some of their higher scoring efforts came when QB Alex Smith was healthy. Right now he’s not. His arm strength is down this season and with his bad calf he really struggles to move around. Last week vs a poor Philadelphia defense, without their top player (Fletcher Cox), in a must win game they only were able to score 20 on just 4.0 YPP. They’ve scored 20 or less in 6 straight games and we don’t think they get there in this one. They face one of the top defenses in the NFL as Tampa ranking 6th in both total and YPP defense. Washington has faced 3 top 10 defenses this year and they score a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in those 3 games. We tend to look for UNDERS in the playoffs as everything gets ramped up a notch. In games played outdoors the UNDERS have really cashed nicely in the Wildcard round going 81-60-4 the last 145 games. Looks like cold weather in DC on Saturday night and we like this one to stay UNDER the total.