#473 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta +10.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Falcons haven’t been a double-digit dog this season. In fact, the largest spread the Falcons have faced this season is +6-points against Tampa Bay last week. They lost to the Bucs by 4-points in a game which most key statistics were relatively even. Going back further we find the Falcons have been double-digit dogs just twice in their last 47 games. Now you might be saying they are facing the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Chiefs who are clearly the best offensive team in the NFL and their overall defensive numbers are bad. If you look at raw data you see the Falcons rank 28th in yards allowed per game, 31st in passing defense and 18th in points allowed per game BUT when you factor in their strength of schedule, they have the 12th best DVOA numbers in the NFL. Despite being 4-10 SU the Falcons have an average point differential of +0.1PPG which is in the top half of the NFL and ranks better than 10-4 Cleveland, 7-7 Chicago, 6-8 New England to name a few. Kansas City is 13-1 SU on the season and their average Margin of Victory is +8.9PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover here. Kansas City has a defensive DVOA that ranks 17th in the NFL and the Falcons offense that is loaded with weapons can take advantage of this average unit. Grab the points with Atlanta.