#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56.5 Points – Kansas City @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - To hold Tampa’s offense in check, you need to have an elite pass rush. Brady is not great when under pressure but if he has time, he’ll pick you apart. Case in point, last week when the Bucs faced a top notch Rams pass rush, they were held to 251 total yards but still scored 24 points. A few week’s prior to that they faced New Orleans, who is top 5 in sack percentage, and the Bucs scored just 3 points. In their other meeting with the Saints they had 23 points. If we take away their games vs top 10 rush defenses (sack percentage) the Bucs are averaging 34.5 PPG. KC’s rush defense ranks 21st in the NFL. The TB has solid overall stats but much of that came early in the season. They have allowed 26 PPG over last 5 games and only 1 of those teams (Rams) ranked in the top 10 in total offense. Now they face a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and 1st in scoring. The Chiefs are rolling offensively scoring at least 33 points in 4 straight games. They’ve been held under 30 points only 3 times this season. Their defense is another story. They’ve been giving up points and yardage. The last 2 games alone, vs Panthers & Raiders, they’ve allowed 31 points in each and over 400 yards in each. They’ve allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 6 games and 2 of the games they did not they were facing the Jets & Broncos, two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both of these teams like to play at a fast tempo with TB 10th and KC 14th in pace of play. Those numbers are actually deceiving as they should both be ranked higher in pace of play. They are ranked 3rd and 4th in first half pace of play and because they have gotten out to some big leads, they’ve slowed down in the 2nd half which affect their overall pace. We don’t see either team getting out to a big lead here. We look for a back and forth game in perfect weather in Tampa (80 degrees and light winds) and we’ll grab the OVER.