ASA top play 10* on: OVER 219 Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Game 3 Sunday - The Heat had a horrible shooting night in Game 1 which resulted in just 98-points. In Game 2 they bounced back and hit 51% overall from the field and made 11 of 27 from beyond the arc. Those were a drastic improvement over Game 1’s numbers of 43% and 31% and helped the Heat score 114-points against Los Angeles. Miami has the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers in the post-season averaging 1.143 points per possession which is nearly identical to their regular season PPP when they averaged 112PPG. Defensively the Heat were the 11th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.097PPP but in the Playoffs that number has risen to 1.115PPP. In essence, the Heat are scoring about the same as in the regular season but allowing more points per game in the Playoffs. Even without Dragic and Adebayo they still managed 114 in Game 2 and if we get a similar scoring output today this game goes Over easily. We haven’t forgotten about the Lakers who have put up 116 and 124 points in the first two games. In Game 1 they could have easily put up 130 had they wanted to but the game was out of reach early so they coasted down the stretch. The Lakers have shot 45% and 51% in the two games with Anthony Davis nearly setting a Playoff record in shooting percentage by hitting 15 of 20 from the field. The Heat don’t have an answer for the Finals MVP as Davis is an impossible matchup for them without Adebayo. The Lakers have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers of all Playoff teams as they average 1.170 points per possession and 98 possessions per game which is 7th highest. The pace of play numbers, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers suggest this will be a slightly higher scoring game than a normal NBA contest which was around 223PPG during the regular season. Our Model predicts 230 Total points and we couldn’t agree more with it!