Betting Trends: San Diego is 24-12 RL (66.7%) as underdogs, including 17-6 RL (73.9%) as road underdogs, while Boston is 5-22 RL (18.5%) as home favorites this year.

I value a wager on the Padres to cover the run line tomorrow evening. San Diego has momentum, and its season trends suggest it's a great bet on the road with a run of insurance to cover. It has averaged six runs per game during its recent winning streak and is scoring five runs per game this month. Nick Pivetta's home struggles could continue against a San Diego lineup that crushes right-handed pitchers (.275 BA/.335 OBP/.427 SLG/.762 OPS).

Randy Vásquez hasn't pitched well enough on the road to pick the Padres to win straight-up at roughly +130 odds. He is coming off a shutout of Milwaukee and has held five of his last six opponents to three or fewer runs (ten runs total in those starts). If he can just keep the Padres in the game, the bullpen will keep the Red Sox from breaking the game open.

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