Denver is 5-3 SU and while it has faced a weak SOS, the Broncos' defense can't be overlooked. Vance Joseph's unit ranks first in EPA allowed per play, third in opponent success rate per play, and fifth in Defensive DVOA this season. I like Denver to keep this game close throughout and turn it on in the fourth quarter when the Ravens have been outscored 93-59 this season.

Baltimore is just 1-11-1 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more since 2021, but I feel confident this is a spot where they will lose outright. Baltimore is a great team but it has played inconsistently, even in its victories. At +385 odds, the value of a wager on the Denver ML is too good to pass up!